WEF Global Risks Report 2017:  Growing concerns for climate change-related risks

Each year since 2007, the World Economic Forum publishes a Report on Global Risks, highlighting the key areas that need urgent action such as economic growth and reform and rebuilding communities.

The new WEF Global Risks Report published in January 2017 shows the prominence of environmental concerns. Indeed, among the Top Ten of the risks in term of both Likelihood and Impact, five are directly related to climate change.

Top Ten of the Risks in term of Likelihood and Top Ten of the Risks in term of Impact. Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2017

The Report acknowledges that global cooperation is needed on climate change due to the numerous environment-related risks it induces such as extreme weather events and water crises. Climate change-related risks also have a profound link with other risks such as conflict and migration.

The deteriorating commitment to global cooperation by states (already illustrated by the withdrawal of several States from the International Criminal Court for example) brings uncertainty as to the implementation of the Paris Agreement on climate change. The accord, adopted in December 2015, was supported by the Obama administration and has already been criticized by current President-elect of the United-State Donald Trump.

The risk is that an ineffective management of the “global commons” (oceans, atmosphere) will lead to changing weather patterns or water crises that will create and/or aggravate geopolitical and societal risks. Domestic or regional conflicts and involuntary migrations in geopolitically fragile areas are some of the consequences of a lack of global action on climate change.

Some progresses in climate change policy have been made with the Paris Agreement or the Montreal Convention’s Amendment on hydrofluorocarbons for example. However, the climate action is not rapid enough to cope with the numerous impacts of climate change on ecosystems and populations, as shown by the following facts:

• Greenhouse gas emissions are growing (by about 52 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year);
• 2016 was the warmest year on the instrumental record according to provisional analysis by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO);
• UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2016 stated that even if Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement are implemented by governments, global temperature will still warm by 3.0 to 3.2°C
• Record melt of Arctic sea ice in 2016 and unprecedented coral bleaching event at the Great Barrier Reef (over 700 kilometers);
• Displacement of 21.5 million people associated with climate- or weather-related events each year since 2008, as estimated by UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

Finally, the Report acknowledges the growing recognition “that the response to environmental risks cannot be delivered by international agencies and governments alone”. Indeed, new approaches seem to be required with wider “systems view” of the interconnected challenges and larger and more diverse stakeholders. However, taking a systemic approach implies considering the new risks stemming from climate action, such as the consequences of a transition to low-carbon on the national labor-market of numerous economies.

The Global Risks Interconnections Map 2017. Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2016/Global Risks Report 2017

The Risks-Trends Interconnections Map. Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2016/Global Risks Report 2017